CENTER OF EXCELLENCE
PACER Research Spotlight
PACER has made significant contributions to the Nation's understanding of preparedness and ability to respond to disasters. A few key research highlights are listed below.
EMCAPS V 1.0 and V 2.0: The Electronic Mass Casualty Assessment and Planning Scenarios (EMCAPS): EMCAPS is a standalone software program that models a disaster scenario. It can be used as an online medical drill or as a training aid. EMCAPS can estimate casualties arising from a biological attack (anthrax, plague, food contamination), a chemical attack (by a blister agent, nerve agent, or toxic agent), a radiological (“dirty”) bomb, or an attack by an improvised explosive device (IED).
Global Scale Agent Model (GSAM): The GSAM is a flexible, distributed agent-based model, featuring more than six billion agents, that is designed to simulate the spread and containment of infectious disease. The model enables detailed tracking of epidemic dynamics in time and space, including the effect of containment strategies such as vaccination, school closures, anti-viral prophylaxis, and travel restrictions. The model is particularly innovative in its incorporation of behavioral factors that can impact the spread of infectious diseases.
Urban Evacuation Model: Hybrid Computational Fluid Dynamics/Agent-Based Modeling: This tool uses hybrid plume-agent modeling to facilitate the design of evacuation strategies for large cities following the release of chemical or biological airborne toxic contaminants. It also supports associated policy development and implementation. The model projects toxic plume dynamics and traffic patterns onto realistic 3-D renditions of large cities, such as Los Angeles, allowing users to evaluate the interaction of airborne contaminants and evacuation dynamics (e.g. compliance with shelter-in-place, carpooling, road closures, traffic-aware routing.) This research is at the forefront of the field with its combination of adaptive agents operating in a physically realistic plume model.
Disease Modeling: Global Scale Agent Model (GSAM): GSAM is a flexible, distributed agent-based model, featuring more than six billion agents, that is designed to simulate the spread and containment of infectious disease. The U.S. component models 350 million individuals as they move throughout the United States on a daily basis. The model enables detailed tracking of epidemic dynamics in time and space, including the effect of containment strategies such as vaccination, school closures, anti-viral prophylaxis, and travel restrictions. Decision makers can quickly evaluate alternative policies and actions, and better understand multidisciplinary effects across interdependent systems. The model is particularly innovative in its incorporation of behavioral factors that can impact the spread of infectious diseases.
Medical Surge Capacity Metrics: Medical surge capacity is a critical variable in contingency planning. While significant work has been done to identify the expected magnitude of a patient influx from specific disasters, little has been undertaken to determine the capacity of healthcare facilities to absorb a surge. PACER is developing a software applet to estimate a hospital’s ability to absorb new patient volume given that institution’s existing capacity, capability, census and logistical posture. This will allow institutional planners to become better prepared and enable city or regional planners to more comprehensively and accurately plan for patient distribution after a large scale disaster. This applet will be linked to Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality modeling tools and the new version of EMCAPS under development.
Society for Disaster Health: PACER is leading the effort to create a Society for Disaster Health, an academic organization dedicated to conducting research, education, policy, and advocacy in disaster medicine and public health preparedness.